Weekly Mortgage Rate Update-10-29-2024

Weekly Mortgage Rates

October 29, 2024

 

There were no major economic events last week, but rates continued to move higher. Its not oil prices, the Fed, inflation, or jobs.  It’s the election.

The election is days away

The election matters to bonds as they try to predict what future fiscal policy will be as we head into a new administration.  Not only who becomes president, but also if the winning party gets control over the senate and house. Both parties have presented plans that are expected to increase the deficit, so the control over the senate and house is also important to just how much of the proposed plans get accomplished. In addition to this, they are also looking at what the economic impact will be.  The bond market is trying to get ahead and position for the potential outcome.

 

The Fed has lost control and now the bond market is running the show

Yesterday we had a weak treasury auction of 2-year and 5-year treasuries that drove rates higher still.  Today we have a 7-year auction that could impact rates.  These are shorter duration than mortgage bonds, but the lack of demand for our debt affects all bonds including mortgages.

The bond market’s position ahead of the election and moves since the Fed September cut are telling us all we need to know about the future of rates.  Perhaps weaker economic news will help rates come down, but just how much they do will also depend on the future government spending path.

 

We get all the economic news this week. 

We haven’t had a lot of economic news recently to drive rates but this week we get a lot.  The main events are 3^rd quarter GDP Wednesday, PCE inflation on Thursday and October jobs data on Friday.  Weaker economic news will help our rates but how much ahead of the elections remains to be seen as that is still going to overshadow everything else until it is done.

 

On the technical side 

We have broken out of all our technical supports, so it isn’t wise to float a rate at the moment, we haven’t found any new support yet to warrant the risk. We have market moving news all week followed by next week’s election and the Fed meeting where they are projected to lower the fed rate by another .25%.   We will be watching the 10 year treasuries reaction to the election results and economic data to determine the direction mortgage rates will take.

This Week’s Rates

 

Loan Type	Conventional 30 year	Conventional  15 year	FHA 30 year	VA 30 Year
Interest rate	6.99%	6.375%	6.125%	6.25%
APR	7.153%*	6.634%*	7.135%**	6.399%***

* Specific loan program availability and requirements may vary. Please get in touch with your mortgage advisor for more information.