Weekly Mortgage Rate Update- 11-5-2024

 

Weekly Mortgage Rates

November 5, 2024

 

We have a lot of new economic data to sift through, but the election is still the focus and main driver of rates for now.

 

A mixed picture of the economy-Stubborn but improving inflation, decent economic growth, and softer employment data

Last week GDP came in at 2.8% for the 3^rd quarter, a decent reading. The components in the report showed prices paid coming down which is good news for the inflation outlook.  Speaking of inflation, the Fed’s key measure PCE was released as well.  Core PCE is stuck at 2.7% for the 3^rd month in a row but headline PCE continues to decrease, now at 2.1%.  The Fed focuses on core-which excludes food and energy, and that is still too high.  Then Friday the Jobs data showed a big miss with only 12k jobs added in October with revisions to August and September of 112k less jobs than originally reported. (SMH) The unemployment rate held at 4.1% because labor participation rate dropped.

 

This morning reaction to a hot ISM Services report is sending rates higher

ISM services is a biggie as it represents all the non-manufacturing economy.  Which is most of our economy, including our industry.  It shows services expanded from the previous month and much hotter than expected. It also showed prices paid (inflationary) moderating, and a pick up in employment and new orders.  Yes the economy is a mixed picture for sure.

 

The Fed will conclude its meeting Thursday with a rate decision 

Its baked in already for a .25% cut.  Any divergence on this or change in the policy statement will be what impacts rates.

Looking on the bright side 

Zooming out on the interest rate trends for the last couple of years, it’s clear that every new move up in rates shows rates peaking at a lower high than the previous peak.  This could point towards a slow but bumpy downward trending direction for rates if you look out over a longer time horizon.  Currently we are still below our rate peak at the beginning of summer and much lower that the rate peak fall of 2023.  Of course, this is all speculation but trends matter. For now, we wait for the rest of the week to play out to see where we really are once the election is done skewing things.  Today’s rate snapshot is just that- a snapshot of this moment.  Expect it to be volatile all week.

 

This Week’s Rates

 

Loan Type	Conventional 30 year	Conventional  15 year	FHA 30 year	VA 30 Year
Interest rate	6.99%	6.375%	6.125%	6.25%
APR	7.153%*	6.634%*	7.135%**	6.399%***

 

LICENSED BY THE CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF REAL ESTATE LICENSE A division of TYKY (DRE #01919683) (NMLS LICENSE #257773)

RATES ARE CURRENT AS OF 11-05-2024.  SUBJECT TO BORROWER APPROVAL, FICO SCORE, LTV AND PROPERTY TYPE

*APR IS BASED ON ESTIMATED FINANCE CHARGES OF $6935

**APR IS BASED ON ESTIMATED FINANCE CHARGS OF $10,969 THIS INCLUDES FHA MORTGAGE INSURA

NCE PREMIUM

***APR BASED ON ESTIMATED FINANCE CHARGES OF $8343

FEES INCLUDE 1% POINTS, NO Loan Origination Fee ,  $1095 PROCESSING AND $0 UNDERWRITING FEE        

 

* Specific loan program availability and requirements may vary. Please get in touch with your mortgage advisor for more information.